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2018 China's powder metallurgy industry market scale and future development space forecast for future application areas
1. Powder metallurgy technology
Powder metallurgy belongs to the sunrise industry of modern industrial development. It is a process technology for making metal materials, composites and various types of products by forming or sintering metal or metal powder (or a mixture of metal powder and non-metal powder). . In 1890, a tungsten bulb was successfully fabricated by powder metallurgy, marking the birth of modern powder metallurgy. After 1950, powder metallurgy technology was gradually applied to all walks of life and infiltrated into the industry, and new materials based on powder metallurgy technology such as powder metallurgy high-speed steel, special ceramics and fiber reinforcement materials were developed.
Powder metallurgy mainly includes four methods: traditional method, metal injection molding (MIM), metal additive manufacturing (MAM), and isostatic pressing (IP). Traditional method and MIM method are the most widely used powder metallurgy technologies in the automotive field. The required raw materials (powder metallurgy mixed powder) are divided into two types: self-mixing powder used by the part manufacturer and premixed powder supplied by the powder supplier.
1. Traditional powder metallurgy process
That is, pressing and sintering, by mixing the element or alloy powder, compacting the mixture in a mold, and then sintering or heating to bond the particle metallurgy in a controlled environment furnace. Most of the powder metallurgy parts produced by this process weigh less than 2.27 kg, and parts weighing up to 15.89 kg can also be manufactured in traditional powder metallurgical equipment.
2. Metal Injection Molding (MIM)
The parts produced by the metal injection molding process have mechanical properties almost equivalent to forged materials, providing almost unlimited shape and geometric features, and high production rates. Suitable for relatively small (generally less than 250 grams), highly complex parts, otherwise it requires a lot of finishing or assembly operations. Compared with other forging technologies, powder metallurgy technology has obvious advantages. The energy utilization rate of powder metallurgy process can reach 95%, and the energy consumption can be saved by about 60%. The highest precision can reach 0.01mm, and the dimensions between parts The variation value of the change is extremely small; the mass production of complex structural parts can be realized; the composition is relatively uniform, and the product has no problems such as bubbles and impurities.
Advantages of powder metallurgy over traditional forging products: Powder metallurgy can be used for the processing of refractory metals, hard alloys, etc.; compacts can be directly pressed into the final product size, thus minimizing the need for subsequent machining; Saving material usage, thereby reducing production costs; no need to melt materials, reducing impurities and material oxidation, thereby improving material purity.
Second, the market size of the powder metallurgy industry
In 2016, the global powder metallurgy was 155.9 billion, and the proportion of automobiles was 72%. The market of powder metallurgy industry was large, and the European and American markets were relatively mature. In 2016, the global production value of powder metallurgy parts was 20 billion euros (about 155.9 billion yuan), and Europe ranked first in the total output value of powder metallurgy parts with 7.63 billion euros, accounting for 38% of the world. North American and Japanese production values were 40.16 and 2.209 billion euros, respectively, accounting for 20% and 11% of the global market.
3. Spatial prediction of future development of application fields in the powder metallurgy industry
1. Powder metallurgy parts are widely used in automotive applications.
Metal or alloy powders are manufactured through processes such as forming and sintering to produce parts for use in different industries. After 70 years of development, powder metallurgy parts have gradually evolved from replacing cast iron parts with low strength and simple shape to high-strength parts that can be used for casting and forging, and become an effective substitute for machined or cast parts.
The downstream industry of powder metallurgy can be auto parts, motorcycle parts, compressor parts and other accessories. From the global powder metallurgy machinery parts industry, the largest sales market of powder metallurgy parts is the automotive industry, the quality and quality of powder metallurgy parts. The most demanding market.
75% of powder metallurgy parts are used in engines and transmissions in automobiles. Among them, there are shock absorber parts, guides, pistons and low valve seats in the chassis; ABS sensors, brake pads, etc. in the brake system; Key components in fuel pumps, oil pumps and transmission pumps; ducts, races, connecting rods, housings, variable valve timing system (VVT) key components and exhaust pipe bearings in the engine; Synchronous hubs and planet carriers. Powder metallurgy parts are used in approximately 350 automotive parts, for a total of approximately 1,000 discrete parts.
The domestic automobile powder metallurgy has a low carrying capacity and a huge room for improvement. The scale of the domestic powder metallurgy industry has steadily increased. The market size of China's powder metallurgy industry continued to rise in 2012-2016, from 5.42 billion yuan in 2012 to 6.46 billion yuan in 2016. The compound growth rate was 6.03%. It is expected that 2017-2018 will be With a growth rate of around 7%, the powder metallurgy market is expected to reach 6.9 billion in 2017.
The proportion of automobiles has increased year by year. The most important market of the powder metallurgy parts industry has gradually evolved into the automobile industry from the refrigerator compressor industry, air-conditioning compressor industry and motorcycle industry. The sales of powder metallurgy auto parts increased from 2.837 billion yuan in 2012 to 4.008 billion yuan in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 9% and a sustained and rapid growth trend. In 2016, sales of powder metallurgy parts reached 6.4 billion yuan, and sales in the automotive industry accounted for 62% of total sales.
There is a large room for improvement in powder metallurgy penetration rate in the domestic automobile market. The demand for powder metallurgy parts in the European automotive industry accounts for around 90% of the powder metallurgy market, with Japan reaching 95% and North America reaching 77%. In 2016, China's penetration rate was only about 62%. In mature markets such as Europe and the United States, the use of powder metallurgy products is high. The average powder metallurgy product usage per vehicle in the United States is 19.5kg or more, which is expected to reach 22kg in the next few years, 14kg in Europe and 9kg in Japan, while China's bicycle usage is only 5-6kg (due to the Chinese auto market segment). China's bicycle use is estimated to be slightly lower than the actual level of imported car parts, so the use of China's powder metallurgy products is expected to continue. Upgrade.
In 2017, the annual output of China's automobiles was 29,101,500, which is conservatively estimated according to the compound growth rate of 1%. By 2022, China's automobile production was 304.951 million. Estimated by the average bicycle powder metallurgy parts consumption of 6kg, the market space of China's automotive powder metallurgy parts will reach 14.638 billion yuan by 2022; the estimated bicycle consumption is 10kg, the market volume in 2012 is 24.396 billion yuan; the estimated bicycle consumption is 14kg. In 2022, the market volume was 34.154 billion yuan.
2. Market size and forecast of application areas of technology in the next 10 years
Energy Medical Aviation, Powder Metallurgy Application New three-pole powder metallurgy technology net forming capacity and high material utilization rate, can minimize energy input and reduce environmental impact, most refractory metals and their compounds, pseudo alloys, porous Materials can also be manufactured only by powder metallurgy. At present, the powder metallurgy industry is driven by the application of the automotive market. In the next 10 years, the application fields of technology include energy, medical equipment, aerospace, electrical and electromagnetic, defense and industrial and consumer products, among which energy, medical and aerospace will become the three main applications. industry. Alternative energy demand drives new PM applications Powder metallurgy technology can meet the porous structure and composites of fuel cell plates and reduce costs. As fuel cells continue to evolve, energy infrastructure requires powder metallurgy applications such as bearings, gears, adapters, fixtures, motors, generators, storage, sensors, switches, interconnects, coatings, and more. The global market size of fuel cells reached US$3.6 billion in 2015 and is expected to reach US$25.5 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of over 20%.
The powder metallurgy process can be used in the manufacture of fuel cell bipolar plates. In 2016, global fuel cell shipments reached 478 MW, an increase of 61% year-on-year. In 2017, global fuel cell installed capacity increased by 30% to 670 MW, and the number of units exceeded 70,000. Set, a year-on-year increase of 15%. It is expected that the annual compound growth rate of the global fuel market will exceed 20% in the next 10 years. China's fuel cell shipments in 2015 reached 10.5 MW, an increase of 14.13% year-on-year, and it is expected to maintain a 20% growth rate in the future. The cost of fuel cell bipolar plates accounts for about 30% of the total cost. Even if the overall cost of the fuel cell decreases, the cost of the bipolar plate itself is not large. Under the condition of 10KW system, with an annual output of 100,000 sets of fuel cells, the fuel cell The cost is $3,158/KW, and the cost of bipolar plates is 26%-30% of the total cost, which is $947.4. It is estimated that by 2022, the global fuel cell bipolar plate market will reach US$2.737 billion (approximately RMB 17.234 billion), and the Chinese fuel cell bipolar plate market will reach RMB 308 million.
Population ageing promotes the medical industry PM application of powder metallurgy can greatly meet the human body compatibility, non-corrosiveness and high wear resistance of medical equipment. It is difficult to manufacture parts that meet the requirements using traditional processes. In contrast, MIM and 3D metal printing technology (additive manufacturing) can produce complex geometries and can be compatible with titanium alloys, nickel alloys, stainless steel and more human body materials. Use together.
Surgical instruments, especially those used in laparoscopic surgery, require complex and precise small to micro-components. MIM (Metal Injection Molding) technology produces large quantities of ingredients with high quality. Non-corrosive materials are fully compliant with the requirements of maximum durability and long life cycle. When manufacturing surgical instruments with MIM technology, the sharpness of the cutting edge can be greatly improved.
Plastic surgery, which has high requirements for reliability, functionality and aesthetics, MIM technology can be used for artificial knee joints to ensure high load capacity of parts, MIM materials are fully durable, non-corrosive and The surface is of high quality. MIM technology supports any 3D shape to best meet the required functionality and lightweight requirements.
In 2017, the global medical device market was 430 billion US dollars, reaching 522 billion US dollars by 2022, with a compound growth rate of 5.1%. China National Drug Supervision and Management Research Institute predicts that the total annual sales of medical devices in China is expected to exceed RMB 700 billion by 2020. The growth rate of China's medical device industry will continue to increase at an average annual rate of more than 10% in the next 10 years.
For the global medical device market in 2018-2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1%, the Chinese medical device market will be calculated at a growth rate of 19% and decreasing by 1% year by year. By 2022, the global medical device market will be US$516.8 billion, and the domestic market will be 924.4 billion RMB. At present, the MIM powder metallurgy process has a low penetration rate in medical devices. If the industry penetration rate is 0.5%, the market volume of powder metallurgy parts in the global medical device field will be US$2.584 billion by 2022. Powder metallurgy in China's medical device field. The volume of the parts market will reach 4.622 billion yuan; the penetration rate will be 1%. By 2022, the global volume will be 5.168 billion US dollars, China will be 9.244 billion yuan; and the penetration rate will be 1.5%, the global volume will be 7.752 billion US dollars. The domestic volume is 13.687 billion yuan.
3. China's market volume forecast for aircraft powder metallurgy parts in the next 20 years
Lightweight fuel economy drives aerospace applications PM applications PM thermal isostatic pressing (HIP) technology meets the requirements of lightweight and high-strength requirements for aerospace components. Aircraft need to minimize fuel costs, withstand pressure and minimize greenhouse gas emissions, and the need for more efficient engines will require high-strength materials that can operate at higher temperatures. The aviation industry needs to meet new and demanding requirements by developing new materials and processes in the field of powder metallurgy. Advances in repair technology, metal 3D printing technology, and powder metallurgy HIP technologies will continue to provide more powder metallurgy applications for aerospace applications.
Global GM's turnover has been growing for nearly 20 years, and global aircraft shipments have increased from 2,268 in 2016 to 2,324 in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Turnover increased from $3.794 billion in 1994 to $20.2 billion in 2017. In the next 20 years, 41030 aircraft will be delivered globally. According to the weight of the aircraft structure of the extension type, the unit price of the aircraft powder metallurgy parts is calculated based on the average unit price of powder metallurgy parts of 100 yuan/kg (because the aircraft powder metallurgy parts technology is relatively complex, the actual unit price is greater than the industry average). In the next 20 years, if 10% of the aircraft's materials are applied by powder metallurgy technology, the global market for aircraft powder metallurgy materials will total 29.727 billion yuan; if 15% use powder metallurgy, the global volume will reach 44.591 billion yuan; if 20% apply powder Metallurgy, the global mass reached 59.454 billion yuan.
There are fewer domestic companies involved in medium and high-end automotive powder metallurgy parts, and domestic high-end automotive powder metallurgy parts still rely mainly on imports. The production technology, quality control and research and development capabilities of domestic enterprises are still far behind the foreign companies. Among the top ten companies in the powder metallurgy market, there are 5 European companies, 4 Japanese companies, and 1 US company. The current global leader is GKN Group (GKN Group), which has 18% market share and the second largest in the world. The company is SUMITOMO Group (Sumitomo Group of Japan), HITACHI Group (Hitachi Group) accounts for 6%, and FINESINTER Group and MIBA Group account for 5%. The top four vendors accounted for 38% of the market, and the top ten vendors accounted for 59% of the market.